Utility Volatility Compression Reversion Bounce

Quant thesis: When XLU 20-day realized volatility drops below 10% (multi-year low for defensive sector), and the ETF declines 3%+ from recent 20-day high, mean-reversion bias favors 5-10 day bullish rebounds as fear premiums collapse and dividend yields reactivate portfolio flows. Utilities compress during market risk-off; low volatility + small declines create mechanical dividend-capture and rotation-back-to-safety setups.

Plain English: When XLU 20-day realized volatility drops below 10% (multi-year low for defensive sector), and the ETF declines 3%+ from recent 20-day high, mean-reversion bias favors 5-10 day bullish rebounds as fear premiums collapse and dividend yields reactivate portfolio flows. Utilities compress during market risk-off; low volatility + small declines create mechanical dividend-capture and rotation-back-to-safety setups.

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Type
alternative
Family
Macro Input Pressure
Status
Sandbox
Frequency
daily

Quant thesis

When XLU 20-day realized volatility drops below 10% (multi-year low for defensive sector), and the ETF declines 3%+ from recent 20-day high, mean-reversion bias favors 5-10 day bullish rebounds as fear premiums collapse and dividend yields reactivate portfolio flows. Utilities compress during market risk-off; low volatility + small declines create mechanical dividend-capture and rotation-back-to-safety setups.

Plain English description

When XLU 20-day realized volatility drops below 10% (multi-year low for defensive sector), and the ETF declines 3%+ from recent 20-day high, mean-reversion bias favors 5-10 day bullish rebounds as fear premiums collapse and dividend yields reactivate portfolio flows. Utilities compress during market risk-off; low volatility + small declines create mechanical dividend-capture and rotation-back-to-safety setups.

What you are looking at

When XLU 20-day realized volatility drops below 10% (multi-year low for defensive sector), and the ETF declines 3%+ from recent 20-day high, mean-reversion bias favors 5-10 day bullish rebounds as fear premiums collapse and dividend yields reactivate portfolio flows. Utilities compress during market risk-off; low volatility + small declines create mechanical dividend-capture and rotation-back-to-safety setups.

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Data sources

Known risks

Data source instability, false positives, and regime shifts.